Hopefully, you all work in razor blade factories- but there's even grim news there. People who used to only use fresh blades to slit their wrists are now sharing blades.Please don't share blades, people need these jobs.
Nationwide Rate 9.4%
Michigan..................... 14.1%
Oregon.......................... 12.4%
Rhode Island................. 12.1%
South Carolina............... 12.1%
California....................... 11.5%
Nevada........................... 11.3%
North Carolina............... 11.1%
Ohio.............................. 10.8%
District Of Columbia........ 10.7%
Tennessee....................... 10.7%
Indiana......................... 10.6%
Kentucky........................ 10.6%
Florida......................... 10.2%
Alabama......................... 9.8%
Georgia......................... 9.7%
Washington.................... 9.4%
Missouri...................... 9.0%
New Jersey................... 8.8%
Alaska.......................... 8.4%
Maine........................... 8.3%
Arizona........................ 8.2%
Massachusetts................ 8.2%
New York...................... 8.2%
Pennsylvania................. 8.2%
The nationwide stats show broad pain but still a few states come out with low numbers mostly in the mountain west and farm belt.
Iowa......................... 5.8%
Utah......................... 5.4%
South Dakota................. 5.0%
Wyoming...................... 5.0%
Nebraska..................... 4.4%
North Dakota................. 4.4%
Texas, with a 7% rate looks relatively good.
Also, the trend I predicted of states close to the Washington, D.C. area benefiting from the bulging growth of government also holds true. In fact, at this point college towns, state capitals and other places with economies dependent on government spending seem the healthiest. Of course, anyone looking at the state of government finances has to wonder how much longer this can last.
Our nation has a new upper class-- People who work for the Government.
Virginia has a 7.1% rate (my guess is that it's lowest in Northern Virginia.)
Maryland has a 7.2% rate (probably lowest in Southern and Eastern Maryland)
Showing posts with label BLS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BLS. Show all posts
Friday, June 19, 2009
Saturday, May 09, 2009
FYI, Could Be A Lie
People giddy over the reported loss of "only 530,000 lost jobs" might want to know about the recent revisions in reported figures.
This is very true now.
August 2008: Initially 84,000, revised to 175,000
September 2008: Initially 159,000, revised to 321,000
October 2008: Initially 240,000, revised to 380,000
November 2008: Initially 533,000, revised to 597,000
December 2008: Initially 524,000, revised to 681,000
January 2009: Initially 598,000, revised to 655,000
February 2009: Initially 651,000, revised up 30,000
Added to this are a few more issues as pointed out by Zero Hedge
Kool Aid sales still strong
"First, the "seasonal adjustment", which is a black box that can tweek me into looking like Dumbo the flying elephant. They're knocking off ±65,000 workers for no clearly discernible reason.
Second, notice that the Census Bureau hired 60,000 people last month. Those workers (by definition) are temporary, and are a net cost to the economy, as they will not be adding marginal utility to any economic sector, the census being merely a social expenditure."
No doubt unemployment has declined in Washigton DC--- hiring some security for the next TEA Party and perhaps a few jail cells for us all.
But, But, But--- The stock market is up right???
Or is it that the value of the dollar is down? One thing Washington has done well.
This is very true now.
August 2008: Initially 84,000, revised to 175,000
September 2008: Initially 159,000, revised to 321,000
October 2008: Initially 240,000, revised to 380,000
November 2008: Initially 533,000, revised to 597,000
December 2008: Initially 524,000, revised to 681,000
January 2009: Initially 598,000, revised to 655,000
February 2009: Initially 651,000, revised up 30,000
Added to this are a few more issues as pointed out by Zero Hedge
Kool Aid sales still strong
"First, the "seasonal adjustment", which is a black box that can tweek me into looking like Dumbo the flying elephant. They're knocking off ±65,000 workers for no clearly discernible reason.
Second, notice that the Census Bureau hired 60,000 people last month. Those workers (by definition) are temporary, and are a net cost to the economy, as they will not be adding marginal utility to any economic sector, the census being merely a social expenditure."
No doubt unemployment has declined in Washigton DC--- hiring some security for the next TEA Party and perhaps a few jail cells for us all.
But, But, But--- The stock market is up right???
Or is it that the value of the dollar is down? One thing Washington has done well.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Some Thoughts About Government Unemployment Numbers
People woke yet again to see a very grim unemployment figure which surprised media and analysts on the upside. Anyone following these numbers closely would not have been fooled.
"WASHINGTON -- New jobless claims rose more than expected last week, while the number of workers continuing to filing claims for unemployment benefits topped 6.1 million.
Both figures are fresh evidence layoffs persist amid a weak job market that is not expected to rebound anytime soon.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment compensation rose to a seasonally adjusted 640,000, up from a revised 613,000 the previous week. That was slightly above analysts' expectations of 635,000. "
In fact, a strong pattern has developed of rosy numbers grabbing headlines while quietly being revised later with more truthful data.
BLS Job numbers always produce headlines and market impact when they come out while later revisions to the figures slip out later. During normal economic times these revisions are fairly minor. However, the fact that these figures are based upon historic trend estimates of economic activity creates very inaccurate figures during serious recessions.
This is very true now.
August 2008: Initially 84,000, revised to 175,000
September 2008: Initially 159,000, revised to 321,000
October 2008: Initially 240,000, revised to 380,000
November 2008: Initially 533,000, revised to 597,000
December 2008: Initially 524,000, revised to 681,000
January 2009: Initially 598,000, revised to 655,000
February 2009: Initially 651,000, as released today.
The biggest single distortion comes from the BLS's guestimate of the number of firms created and going out of business in a given period which preposterously assume that the ratio of new business starts and business deaths are the same during a serious recession as they were during "normal times".
What's probably going on is that the dismal layoff reports by large companies are far exceeded by even more drastic layoffs and closings among small businesses, most of which are not recieving handouts and favors and are looking foward to massive tax and regulatory burdens.
"WASHINGTON -- New jobless claims rose more than expected last week, while the number of workers continuing to filing claims for unemployment benefits topped 6.1 million.
Both figures are fresh evidence layoffs persist amid a weak job market that is not expected to rebound anytime soon.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment compensation rose to a seasonally adjusted 640,000, up from a revised 613,000 the previous week. That was slightly above analysts' expectations of 635,000. "
In fact, a strong pattern has developed of rosy numbers grabbing headlines while quietly being revised later with more truthful data.
BLS Job numbers always produce headlines and market impact when they come out while later revisions to the figures slip out later. During normal economic times these revisions are fairly minor. However, the fact that these figures are based upon historic trend estimates of economic activity creates very inaccurate figures during serious recessions.
This is very true now.
August 2008: Initially 84,000, revised to 175,000
September 2008: Initially 159,000, revised to 321,000
October 2008: Initially 240,000, revised to 380,000
November 2008: Initially 533,000, revised to 597,000
December 2008: Initially 524,000, revised to 681,000
January 2009: Initially 598,000, revised to 655,000
February 2009: Initially 651,000, as released today.
The biggest single distortion comes from the BLS's guestimate of the number of firms created and going out of business in a given period which preposterously assume that the ratio of new business starts and business deaths are the same during a serious recession as they were during "normal times".
What's probably going on is that the dismal layoff reports by large companies are far exceeded by even more drastic layoffs and closings among small businesses, most of which are not recieving handouts and favors and are looking foward to massive tax and regulatory burdens.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
The Problem With BLS Numbers
BLS Job numbers always produce headlines and market impact when they come out while later revisions to the figures slip out later. During normal economic times these revisions are fairly minor. However, the fact that these figures are based upon historic trend estimates of economic activity creates very innaccurate figures during serious recessions.
This is very true now.
August 2008: Initially 84,000, revised to 175,000
September 2008: Initially 159,000, revised to 321,000
October 2008: Initially 240,000, revised to 380,000
November 2008: Initially 533,000, revised to 597,000
December 2008: Initially 524,000, revised to 681,000
January 2009: Initially 598,000, revised to 655,000
February 2009: Initially 651,000, as released today.
The biggest single distortion comes from the BLS's guestimate of the number of firms created and going out of business in a given period.
This is very true now.
August 2008: Initially 84,000, revised to 175,000
September 2008: Initially 159,000, revised to 321,000
October 2008: Initially 240,000, revised to 380,000
November 2008: Initially 533,000, revised to 597,000
December 2008: Initially 524,000, revised to 681,000
January 2009: Initially 598,000, revised to 655,000
February 2009: Initially 651,000, as released today.
The biggest single distortion comes from the BLS's guestimate of the number of firms created and going out of business in a given period.
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